Huvitav avastus

[swatest]

Leidsin netis kolades sellise artikli:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... y-out.html

kõige tähelepanuväärsem on see lõik:


BALTIC STATES 2022

• Crisis: Russia’s armed forces have been modernised and a tough president, keen on creating a “Russia Plus”, makes bellicose noises towards integrating the three Baltic states into a federation, forcing them to opt out of the Nato alliance. Suspicious cyber attacks occur on Baltic government institutions and energy resources are withheld as Russia tries to probe where Nato’s red lines lie. A major Russian “military exercise” is about to start on the borders of the Baltic states, involving fast, light-weight tanks, marines and helicopter-borne infantry. Flashpoints also flare in other satellite states from Georgia to Ukraine and Belarus, fomented by a resurgent FSB.
• Response: Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia invoke Article Five of the Nato constitution in which an armed attack on one member is deemed an attack on all. Nato decides to send a division made up of three brigades from Britain, France and Germany to deploy on the borders of the states. The US, with fewer forces now deployed in Europe, remains neutral in the conflict.
• Outcome: Britain’s multi-role brigade is heavy with armour and the RAF deploys Typhoons (pictured above) in Baltic airbases. Navy Astute submarines sneak undetected into the Baltic Sea, listening into Russian military communications while tracking Russian hunter-killer submarines. The carrier Queen Elizabeth, refurbished and equipped with two of the three Royal Combined Air Fleet F35 squadrons, sails in to the North Sea, joined by a French carrier. The fast and overwhelming response demonstrates that Nato is serious about defending its members. A valedictory cyber-attack on Latvia results in Britain’s Joint Cyber Warfare Force penetrating and disabling the Kremlin’s command centre.
• Likelihood: Highly possible
• Readiness: Not ready

[allatah]

Kui mälu ei peta, on see juba varemgi siin välja tulnud. Küll aga on mõned asjad võtnud teise suuna, kui artiklis välja käidud.

Ei saanud aru, kas energiavarustuse blokkimine käis ainult baltikumi või kogu euroopa koha. Igastahes mul on selline tunne, et aastal 2022 ei ole Eesti enam mingis väga olulises sõltuvuses Venemaa energiast.

NATU võib ju need brigaadid siia saata, aga "Britain’s multi-role brigade is heavy with armour" kipub tänasel päeval pigem naljakohana tunduma. Ehk on reaalne hoopiski see, et GB saadab oma jalaväe ja erialaüksuseid meie soomusväge toetama Hetkel ei mäleta, kas nende lennukikandjate F35-tega mingit probleeme mitte ei olnud?

"A valedictory cyber-attack on Latvia results in Britain’s Joint Cyber Warfare Force penetrating and disabling the Kremlin’s command centre"
Pigem siiski: "A valedictory cyber-attack on Latvia results in Estonian’s Joint Cyber Warfare Force penetrating and disabling the Kremlin’s command centre while Cyber Defence League halts most of Russias internet"
Noh, unistada ju võib...

[setu]

üks propagandisti komm sealt alt:
So how come we have to intervene under NATO and the US stays out? What a load of rubbish! There are high level elements in the US regime and amongst the American elite who are still hot to confront Russia again, and they'd be in like a shot given a chance like this. Believe it or not, there was actually a serious debate at one stage in the US about whether or not to confront Russia militarily over Georgia (indeed, the Georgian leadership only provoked Russia because they seriously thought that would happen).

We should be out of NATO anyway. If the Baltics remain in a successor defence agreement with the US then we can leave the Yanks to deal with it. If not, we will need to think carefully about whether extending defence guarantees to the Baltic states would be in our interests. If so, then we and presumably other European states would have to devote the necessary resources to deter a Russian attack. If not, they will have to make their accomodations with their big neighbour like everyone does.

Baltic states, is possible but you then immediately say the US will not be involved which by default means NATO has been dissolved or dissolves as part of the crisis. This is an argument to keep Trident, but the carriers operating in the Baltic is a nonsense. If this is an EU operation then we have access to the airbases of Poland and Finland and Germany if this is not an EU operation it can not be won. France and the UK can not protect the Baltics from Russia without land access any more now than in 1940! So this one is a possible real threat but there is no resposibility of the UK to spend more than the rest of Europe all of which being nearer are more at threat than we are. We will spend more if the baltics and Poles themselves do.

Elik eelmise lõigu lõpp annab põhjust nurinaks, miks Kamin on selle situatsiooni loonud. Tehes Miinilaevade etc hankeid ja jättes kõrvale täiskomplekte 155 mm haubitsate ja Leo 2 tankidele, mis oleksid soodsamad kui praegused XA seeriate hanked ühiku kohta jne näiteid on palju. Küsimus jääb.