REAALSUS: COVID-19 pandeemia

[Rändur]

Veel õhtustes uudistes uinutati optimismiga, aga värske info kohaselt Boris Johnson intensiivravil.

[Runkel]

Usutavasti ei ole taasnakatumine, aga kui selliselt "reaktiveerunud" viirust põdejad mingi aja pärast uuesti nakkusohtlikuks muutuvad, on see ka päris ebameeldiv

Tõenäoliselt ei ole tegu testide valeprooviga, nagu artiklis öeldakse. Aga ikkagi palju tundmatuid võrrandis. Siiski, testid (osa teste?) ei pruugi eesmärgipäraselt töötada. Valepositiivne annab immuunsuse tekkimise või mittetekkimise uuringutele "müra" juurde.

[smr]

Boriss Johnsoni seisund on märgatavalt halvenenud ja ta pandi intensiivi. Täpselt nagu arvasin kui tuli teade, et viidi kontrolli. Kahju. Loodetavasti ei satu ta olema esimene riigijuht, kes viirusele alla vannub.
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/ ... 71840?s=21

50% tõenäosusega sureb

The mortality rate for patients admitted to intensive care in the UK with a confirmed case of coronavirus is almost 50%, according to a report by the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC).

https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/29/mortalit ... -12473571/

[ruger]

Kuidas Taiwan suutnud korroonaviirusega toime tulla. Kõigest ca 350 nakatunut ja 5 surnut.

Taiwan, despite being just 100 miles from mainland China with regular flights to and from Wuhan, has successfully staved off the worst of the coronavirus pandemic. The country has so far seen five deaths and just under 350 confirmed cases, and most schools and businesses remain open. How did Taiwan do it?

https://www.democracynow.org/2020/4/3/t ... s_response

[Kriku]

Veel üks ebolaravim, Favipiravir (Jaapani toode, Fujifilm), läheb koroona vastu kliinilisse testimisse tähtajaga juuni lõpus: https://www.wired.com/story/japan-is-ra ... type=owned

Saavutas mõningast esialgset edu Hiinas:

At a hospital in Shenzhen, Zhang claimed Covid-19 patients treated with Favipiravir tested negative for the virus after a median of four days, rather than the 11 days it took for members of the study’s control group to test negative; in another study carried out in Wuhan, patients taking the drug allegedly recovered from fever nearly two days earlier than those who did not take the medication.

Vähendas suremust ebolasse poole võrra.

Veel testimisel olevatest ravimitest:

Favipiravir is not the only existing drug to be put forward as a potential Covid-19 treatment. A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine in March showed that the HIV drug Kaletra failed to produce better results than standard care when administered to Covid-19 patients in Wuhan over a period of 14 days. Remdesivir, an experimental antiviral drug developed by biotech giant Gilead, is the subject of two clinical studies in China, which are supposed to yield results in late April. Meanwhile, a clinical trial is now underway in Italy, Spain, Germany, France, and elsewhere to test the efficacy of Kevzara, a rheumatoid arthritis treatment that some believe may calm an overactive immune response that in some Covid-19 patients can damage lung tissue even after much of the virus has passed from the body.

[Kriku]

Remdesiviri esimese, Hiina raskete juhtumite, kliinilise testi andmete kogumise tähtaeg oli vististi 3. aprill ning tulemused võivad juba sel nädalal tulla:

The severe Covid-19 trial enrolled 453 patients, and is expected to read out results first, perhaps as early as this week. The patients were allowed to enter the study up to 12 days from the onset of Covid-19 symptoms. Once enrolled, the patients were randomized in a double-blind fashion and were treated with daily infusions of remdesivir or a placebo for 10 days.

The primary goal is to show that the drug is better than placebo at improving symptoms within 28 days. That improvement is measured with a six-point scoring system ranging from hospital discharge (a score of 1) to death (a score of 6). In order to count as someone who responded to the drug, a patient must improve by at least two points. Patients can remain hospitalized at the end of the 28-day period of the clinical trial but still improve enough clinically — no longer needing intubation or supplemental oxygen, for example — to count as a responder.

If people who take the placebo show clinical improvement after 16 days, remdesivir would have to track at 13 days to demonstrate superiority with statistical significance, Raffat [Umer Raffat, a biotech analyst at Evercore ISI] said. This would be described in what researchers call a “hazard ratio.” The magic number would be 1.2, meaning that patients do 20% better on remdesivir than placebo.

There is already one red flag. The investigators running the severe Covid-19 study in China have already taken an interim look at the data, but they did not stop the study early. This suggests remdesivir isn’t working as well as hoped, and dampens optimism for an overall positive outcome, Raffat said.

It’s also possible the trial will produce mixed results. If the data from the remdesivir trials show the drug did not have clear benefits overall, experts will still look to see what kind of impact it had for patients who were treated early in the course of their illness. Remember, patients were allowed to enter the severe Covid-19 study even 12 days after they started showing symptoms.

Generally, antivirals are most effective if they are given soon after a person is infected. This allows them to slow the replication of the virus while it is still at low levels. If a treatment is given too late, and the virus has had a full chance to proliferate, it’s possible that the cascade of health consequences cannot be stopped.

So a key question for the remedesivir data will be if the timing of treatment had an impact on its performance.

Hiina kergete ja keskmiste juhtumite kliinilise uuringu tulemused samuti aprillis, veel kahe kliinilise uuringu omad mais:

As mentioned above, there is a second study of remdesivir underway in China that enrolled just over 300 patients with mild or moderate Covid-19. That study is also expected to read out results this month. The patients will be treated with remdesivir or a placebo for 10 days and then followed to determine how quickly they show signs of “clinical recovery” — defined as normal readings for fever, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation and alleviation of cough.

At least four additional clinical trials of remdesivir are underway, including two sponsored by Gilead, both of which are expected to read out in May. Another comes from the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. The World Health Organization is also running the “Solidarity” trial that is testing remdesivir as well as other drugs and drug combinations. So this is not the final word on remdesivir’s potential to fight Covid-19.

Kui katsed osutuvad edukaks, tahab tootja Gilead toota miljon kuuri aasta lõpuks.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/06/gil ... ming-soon/

[Turist 47]

Taani. Riigi piirikontroll vähemalt 10. maini 2020.

Taanis avatakse järgmisel nädalal koolid ja lasteaiad. https://www.thelocal.dk/20200406/denmar ... -next-week
T.

Video. Modelleeritud pandeemia simulatsioon, mis tehti kaks kuud enne pandeemia algust Wuhanis.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174

[Runkel]

Hiina rämpstestid antikehade tuvastamiseks. ÜK saadab kauba tagasi ja küsib raha samuti tagasi.

The Government will look for a refund for millions of coronavirus tests ordered from China after scientists found they were too unreliable to be used by the public.
Ministers will attempt to recoup taxpayers' money spent on the fingerprick tests after an Oxford University trial found they returned inaccurate results.
The failure is a significant setback because it had been hoped the antibody tests would show who had already built up immunity, therefore offering a swifter route out of lockdown.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/0 ... ody-tests/

[aht0]

Muljeid Tartust.

Poes on hakanud liikuma maskidega inimesi rohkem. Enam ei vahita nagu poolemõistuslikku. Ok, paar slaavlasest ehitajat v.a. Mingi hetk kaubariiulite vahel juhtus korraga pool tosinat inimest, kõigil maskid/respikad näos ja kindad käes ja hoides pikivahet

Turusillast alla tulles nägin kuidas politseipatrull töötles viieliikmelist noortepunti. Minut ja vajusid laiali.

Anne tn oli maskides kiirabi hädas tõrksa taksojuhiga. Viie minuti jooksul ilmus politseipatrull. Tahaks loota et polnud tegu stahaanovlasest koroonahaigega taksoroolis..

Linnas on rahvast liikvel aga sellises koguses et mingit "eriolukorda" inimeste hulk hektari kohta küll ei meenutanud. Autosid samuti kuidagi liialt palju "karantiini" kohta..

[OLAVI]

1960`ndatel meil olnud kopsupõletiku puhangu ajal haigestunud lapsed olid kohustuslikul järelkontrollil kuni täisealiseks saamiseni (kui ei olnud kollete aktiveerumist näha aastate jooksul).
Mitu korda aastas tehti kopsupilti, polikliiniku kaardil oli vastav märge, olid eraldi lasteaiad ja laste suvelaagrid.
Kui kopsu funktsioon oli osaliselt kaotatud, siis ega see ei taastunud, sellega lihtsalt harjuti elama.

Ma usun, et käesoleva tõve haigusnähtudest võib terveks saada, aga "täitsa puhtaks" ja terveks ei pruugi kunagi saada.
https://elu24.postimees.ee/6943371/loun ... 1577723337

[Avatar]

Tiba sellest proovide poliitikast praktilise näte najal. Mr X andis kolmanda proovi 02.04 ja sai teise negatiivse vastuse 03.04, misjärel haigusleht suleti 03.04 Põhimõtteliselt võiks kollektiivi naasta, aga kuna ei igasugu hinnangud nakkatamisvõimaluste kohta on lahknevad, siis esialgu veel töötab valdavalt kodukontorist. Mis minu hinnagul, ja arvestades eelnevat, ei oleks tingimata vajalik, aga.. Pere teadaolevalt ei nakatunud - vau...
Ehk siis veelkord ajalugu ülevaatlikult:
12.03 Sümptomid õhtul - 12.03 töölviibimise jooksul keegi nakkust ei saanud. Kontakte palju. Köha puudub.
13.03 -Esimene Arstiga konsultatsioon - otsus oodata üle nädalavahe. avatakse Haigusleht.
16.03 - Otsus et peab isoleeruma. Kuidas tegi selgeks, et vaja testida - ei tea. Aga ta on hea jutuga.
21.03 - Esimene test
22.03 - Positiivne vastus.
23.03 - Sümptomid puuduvad/kaudnud.
27.03 - Esimene kordustest.
28.03 - Esimene kordustest negatiivne.
02.04 - Teine kordustest
03.04 - Teine kordustest negatiivne. Haigusleht suletkse.
Aga kuulsin, et ei läinud just kergelt kulg. 40 -ndates. Näost näkku pole saanud suhelda.
Eedit

[atnekas]

Olukord UK intensiivis. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/health-5219 ... g-covid-19

Kusjuures, kinniseid kaitseprille ma ei märganud ja nendest visiiridest jääb üksi väheks.
Seal tuleb kindlasti ridamisi haigestumisi med. personalil.

[Turist 47]

Linnad on kogu maailmas keskpäeva paiku tühjad. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STapfBUJ5XI&t=393s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFZZF39fgWM
T.

Hiina kasutab koroonaviirust Euroopa jagamiseks. https://twitter.com/ChinaUncensored
... Sky News Austraalia. A.Bolt:"Covid - 19 pärineb Wuhani laborist". https://www.skynews.com.au/"
Artikkel "kindlatest tõenditest", lugu seevastu tingivas kõneviisis, täna ikkagi vist järjekordne spekulatsioon, aga kangutavad nad Kõik ja igal pool. Koroona kahjud saavad suured olema - Süüdlane Peab olema, vajadusel kasvõi möeldakse välja.

[Kriku]

Põhjamaade & Eesti & Läti hospitaliseeritute ning surmade arvu võrdlus eilse seisuga: https://novaator.err.ee/1073579/pohjama ... sammu-maha

Rootsi läheb ootuspäraselt eest ära

[Kriku]

Siia juba postitatud olukorra kohta Singapuris: homsest pannakse kõik ebavajalik kinni: https://www.delfi.ee/news/paevauudised/ ... d=89473865