Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Ukraina luure peab sotsiaalmeedias nähtud Vene üksuste liikumist tavapäraseks õppuste vaheliseks liikumiseks.
Ukraine's Defence Intelligence said they haven't recorded any additional transfer of Russian troops or equipment near their borders. They suggested these movements are normal after training exercises.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1455268312586326016

Samas on mitmes kohas üksuste kogunemisi, mida tavapäraseks nimetada ei saa. Seda siis näiteks Smolenski piirkonnas Yelnyas
https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/statu ... 4794180608
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Politicolt teemakohane artikkel uute sateliidifotodega, Vene sõjatehnika kogunemisest Jelnjast põhja pool asuvale alale.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/0 ... ary-518337
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Jelnyas oleva lisandunud üksuse suurus on vähemalt 1 brigaadi jagu tehnikat.
https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1455494545341358083
https://citeam.org/ru-troop-movements.html?4

Jelnyasse liikunud või sealt liikunud ešelon tuli Lääne? SVR-i armee tankireservi ladudest Kostroma oblastist Bui linnast(Jaroslavist 130km kirdes)
The return trip of the carriage from Yelnya to the Bui station, where the tank reserve of the Russian army is located

https://twitter.com/Jose_Pinoche/status ... 6162182152
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Buy/@ ... 41.5456028

Lisaks täna ilmunud video Vene vägedest tee ääres. Suurtükid ja MRLS-id.
https://twitter.com/CITeam_ru/status/14 ... 3800252425
Sõjaväekolonn liikumas Krimmi
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 9371536385

Rostovi piirkonnas toimub BARS-i(strateegilise reservi)õppus
На полигон Кадамовский прибыли подразделения боевого армейского резерва страны (БАРС) для участия в лагерных сборах.

https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20219221425-owKgt.html
SEPKA-Võimalik, et video seotud reservväelaste õppusega-teksti mitte arvestada.
https://www.tiktok.com/@nikolai7.62/vid ... 5759836418

Ukrainast hinnang piiri taga toimuvale
Center for operational information about the security situation near the state border of Ukraine
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine carefully traces the situation near the state border of Ukraine from the Russian Federation and in the temporarily occupied territories of Crimea and Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The facts provided by the intelligence agencies of Ukraine find their confirmation during the exchange of information with our partners on the security situation around Ukraine.
According to the Chief Intelligence Department of the Ministry of Defense, as of early November 2021, the Russian Federation has concentrated the grouping of troops (forces) with a total of about 90 thousand people near our border and temporarily occupied territories.
It includes the troops of the 8th, 20th armies of the South and Western military constituencies, as well as the forces and means of the Russian Black Sea Navy. In addition, separate connections and parts of the 4th, 6th armies of the Air Force and Air Defense of the Russian Air Force are based near our border. In the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, two army corps of the Russian occupation troops are deployed and operate.
During the second half of the 2021th year near the border of Ukraine, a series of large-scale team-staff training was conducted near the border of the Russian armed forces. They were involved in the troops (forces) of the South and Western military constituencies, as well as separate parts and units of the 41th army of the Central Military District and the Russian Airborne Forces. After the completion of the indicated measures of operational and combat training, the units of the 41th army remained in the European part of Russia, in particular in the area of the settlement of Yelnya, which in the Smolensk region, at a distance of about two hundred sixty kilometers from the state border with Ukraine.
It should be noted that the Russian Federation periodically succeeds in the practice of shifting and accumulating military units in order to maintain tension in the region and political pressure on neighboring states.

https://www.facebook.com/ganna.maliar/p ... 1215631577
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Informnapalmi hinnang on, et Jelnya piirkonnas tehtav vägede koondumine näitab, et sinna piirkonda luuakse uus motolaskurdiviis, mille tehnikat sinna koondatakse. Võimalik, et tekkimas on suisa uus armee, mis peaks katma ära Pihkvast lõunasse tuleva vahemaa.
InformNapalm international volunteer community is closely monitoring the ongoing militarization of Russia, construction of new military facilities, as well as the creation of military alignments along the border with Ukraine and Belarus. On May 4, 2016, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that “three new divisions will be created to counter the build-up of NATO forces near Russian borders “.

At the moment, there is active construction underway of military bases in Novocherkassk and Kadamovskiy in Rostov region, where the 159th Mechanized Infantry Division will be stationed; in Boguchar in Voronezh region, where the 10th Tank Division is being formed; in Valuyki of Belgorod region, where the creation of the military base for the 23rd Mechanized Infantry Brigade in practically complete; and in Klintsy in Bryansk region, a military base is being created, to which the units of the 28th Mechanized Infantry Brigade are being transferred. The militaristic preparations have now affected Yelnya of Smolensk region as well.

The Yelnya division will become part of the 1st Guards Tank Army, together with the Taman Mechanized Infantry and Kantemirovskaya Tank Division Tank Division, which will give it a significant attack potential.

https://informnapalm.org/en/new-russian ... on-formed/
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Milline võiks olla Jelnjasse koonduvate üksuste võimalik rünnaksuund? Läbi Valgevene Kiievi surve alla panemine?
Kõvatamise kõrvalteema võiks olla ka Valgevene enda mõjutamine. 4. novembriks on plaanitud liitriigi liiduprogrammide allkirjastamine, kuigi liitriigi ülemnõukogu koguneb virtuaalselt.
Ukrainlased löövad vastu, aga valgevenelased?
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Jelnyas paiknevate vägede analüüs värskete satelliidipiltide abil. Võimalik uue armee põhiüksuste tekkimine ka ära mainitud.
Yesterday Maxar released images of the camp and barracks at Yelnya.

Here are several observations based on the imagery analysis and the general context.

But first, one caveat. I have no access to the original Maxar shot. Instead, the analysis was done on images available on Twitter. Not great, not terrible.

Yelnya barracks have been expanded in the last two years. Although this was something visible on commercial imagery in 2020, the area was a low priority one for commercial providers. Only now can we see that the barracks were completed.
The military base hosts three units: A tank regiment, an engineer-sapper and an anti-tank battalions. The barracks are unlikely to be at full capacity. We know that the 59th Tank Regiment is undermanned. The other two subunits are possibly too. In this context, the question is following: Is the 41st CAA being used to strengthen the 20th CAA? I still think this is unlikely and Maxar imagery provides some evidence to support this claim.
Low-resolution imagery showed and Maxar confirmed that the 41st CAA assets are being kept separate from the main barracks at Yelnya. The way the 41st CAA ‘base’ is structured indicates equipment is simply stored there. Akin to Pogonovo. Some vehicles are under protective covers. Again, this suggests they can be stored at Yelnya for a while.
At Yelnya, there are three main camps: two with equipment and one for personnel. The former stores 3-5 BTGs. One of which is based on BMP-1s. Not the greatest platform to go to war against Ukraine, or anyone else.
The equipment deployed includes Iskanders and TOS-1s. BTGs come from 74th, 35th MRBs and possibly one from the 90th Tank Division. Add all of these up and you have a nucleus of a new CAA. The one thing that is missing is the air defence assets and possibly elements that would form an artillery brigade.
The camp seems to lack a field hospital. One was stood up both at Pogonovo and Opuk in March. This could suggest the camp for personnel could be short-lived and may be folded soon. Need to monitor this closely.
The 59th Tank Regiment at Yelnya is the northernmost unit of the 20th CAA. Its goal is to support Belarus, rather than to deter Ukraine. If the aim was to deploy units in support of 20th CAA’s possible military operations against Ukraine, we’d probably see 41st CAA’s BTGs being sent to Klintsy or Zaymishche where the 488th and 254th (also undermanned) Motor Rifle Regiments are deployed. Nearby Pocher-2 hosts the 856th Artillery Regiment. These areas are located around 50 km from Ukraine.
Instead, the Russian General Staff opted to deploy the 41st CAA’s BTGs to Yelnya, 120 km from the Russo-Belarusian border and 240 km from Ukraine (in a straight line). I don’t think the nature of the 41st CAA’s movement is coercive or deterring in nature. Though there is a flip side to this view. Deployments to of the 41st CAA to Pogonovo in April were probably Ukraine-related. Pogonovo to Ukraine and Yelnya to Ukraine distances are very similar. Coincidence?

There is one more thing that warrants attention, but which indicates that the 41st CAA movements are related to the ongoing Ukraine situation. In March and April when everyone was focused on Pogonovo, the Russian Armed Forces set up another forward-deployed base. But in Crimea, near Novoozerne. The base holds a significant portion of the 58th CAA’s artillery assets. This equipment is still there. Therefore, two bases with prepositioned equipment remain near Ukraine, in the north and south of the border.

Another thing that I find slightly concerning is the movement of BTGs from 1st GTA. I have linked those to a training cycle, but it seems, they ventured quite far south, but still within the Western MD area of responsibility.

Comparing what we were seeing in March, current events do not indicate that is a build-up occurring. Movements earlier this year were the largest mobility and prepositioning exercises in the Russian Armed Forces that were not linked to any ongoing combat operations. In March Russia had elements of four CAA deployed near Ukraine with additional airborne units sent to Crimea. Nothing of this kind seems to be happening now.

https://rochan-consulting.com/yelnya-ba ... ars-image/
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Hea ülevaade ISW-lt Vene armee üksuste liigutamistest ja hinnagutest.
https://www.iswresearch.org/2021/11/rus ... ikely.html
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
Live for nothing or die for something.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Veel mõned liigutamised

Lipetski oblastis ešelon tehnikaga liikumas Smolenski oblastis Jelnjasse
https://twitter.com/galandecZP/status/1 ... 7873784838

Novorossiskis asuv 108-s dessantründepolgu tehnika liikvel.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 5627458564

Kaitseminister Shoigu jutu järgi on sisuliselt kogu Vene sõjaväeline üksuste tasemel juhtkond, kuni pataljoni tasemeni, saanud Süürias lahingukogemused. Samuti on Venemaal 90% lenduritest sõjategevuse kogemusega.
Shoigu: Almost entire command staff down to battalion level received combat experience in Syria

https://twitter.com/akihheikkinen/statu ... 2482032647
«Фактически все командиры всех звеньев, командиры полков, бригад, дивизий, армий, командующие округами, начальники штабов, вплоть до командиров батальонов прошли через сирийскую операцию», — сказал Шойгу, подчеркнув, что поэтому все имеют боевой опыт.

Он также рассказал, что боевой опыт имеют более 90% летчиков российской армии. Причем некоторые из них имеют по 100 и даже по 400 боевых вылетов.

«Это, конечно, уже совсем другая армия», — отметил министр обороны.

https://rossaprimavera.ru/news/efeae938
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
Live for nothing or die for something.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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ruger kirjutas:Novorossiskis asuv 108-s dessantründepolgu tehnika liikvel.
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 5627458564

Antud rongitäis on liikumas 15km Ukraina piirist asuvasse Kantemirovkasse.(Info arvatavalt pärit Vene raudtee vagunite numbrite kontrollist).
This military train seems to be heading to Kantemirovka in Voronezh oblast, only 15 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1457659131662319621

Raskemat rauda veel.

Krasnodaris tankiešelon
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 1824577541

Vene raudteel veel mingi liikursuurtükiüksus
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 7306906624

Kantemiri diviisi tehnika Voronežhi piirkonnas
A battalion of 4th Tank Division T-80U were spotted by @JanesINTEL
at Maslovka railway station in Voronezh

Equipment will likely be deployed to Pogonovo training ground - recently been emptied of CMD kit

https://twitter.com/tom_bullock_/status ... 3028619271

S350 õhukaitsesüsteem saadetakse Krimmi
TASS, citing an interview with Gen. Dvornikov, says that the #S350 SAM system will soon be deployed in Crimea. This is likely a misinterpretation; in the interview he says the Southern MD is preparing for the system's deployment, but doesn't specify where.

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1 ... 3228697602


Bogucharis olevast baasist on osa tehnikat lahkunud.
This is not good. Boguchar is an important reserve depot for hardware as well. Kantemirovka railhead just 50km down the road is active. And still "too quiet" in Rostov region below.

https://twitter.com/Andy_Scollick/statu ... 0847563780
Sentinel-1 SAR-imagery of the garrison belonging to elements of the 3rd MRD/ 20th CAA in Boguchar at 1504z today November 8th.

Based on lower density in the vehicle parks, it its likely some of the units stationed here has left garrison since November 2nd.

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/statu ... 2521765902

Armaviris käib tehnika pealelaadimine
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 7946386436
Viimati muutis ruger, 09 Nov, 2021 19:13, muudetud 1 kord kokku.
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Praeguste üksuste liigutamise mõtted Michail Kofmanilt.
Brief thoughts on Russian military activity and deployments. The deployment does constitute a buildup, and not just north, or east of Ukraine. Elements of 41st CAA, 1st GTA, & 58th CAA reinforcing permanently based units of the 20th and 8th CAA & 22nd Army Corps in Crimea.

The military activity is out of cycle. These are not routine drills, certification checks, and one would struggle to come up with innocuous explanations for what is being observed. It is not just about 41st CAA units moving up to Yelnya, or 1st GTA movements.

This activity is not particularly public, or paired with coercive statements, compared to what took place in February-April earlier this year. It does appear that the Russian military has been ordered to position itself for a possible operation in the coming months.

I don't see indicators that a Russian military offensive is imminent. Hence this is not a situation likely to unfold in the coming days or weeks. I would look to the winter, maybe after the holidays. Either way, I doubt a political decision has yet been made.

The more ominous aspect of these deployments is a change in political tone. Russian leadership has been laying out a position on Ukraine this year, emphasizing red lines, such that it appears they believe use of force would be lucrative or necessary to achieve political aims.

In retrospect, events back in the spring can be interpreted both as a public coercive warning, and as a dress rehearsal. Regarding Ukraine’s MoD denial last week. I don’t know what to make of it, but it was complete nonsense.

At the end of the day only Russian leadership knows if they intend to use force, on what scale, and when. So nothing is certain, but stepping back and looking over the course of this year, the trendline and indicators are decidedly negative.

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/statu ... 5510044673
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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SEPKA-Voronežhi piirkonda tuleb jälle tehnikat. Mingitel andmetel vanem video, kui 7. novembri oma.
These T-80 tanks and MSTA-S SPGs are in Maslovka, 30km from the Ukrainian border.

The area is home of the 20th Combined arms army, but its tank units are equipped solely with T-72B/B3.

This unit has to be either from the 4th Tank div, Northern Fleet or Eastern MD.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status ... 1383118861
The 4th Tank Division, stationed near Moscow, is part of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the very tip of the Russias armed forces spear. And its appearance is always a warning sign.

Similarly moving the few tank formations from the Arctic or Pacific coasts would be worrying.

The last option is that these tanks are brought in from the Russian tank depots and staffed with reservists is equally worrying.

https://twitter.com/pmakela1/status/1458501451081211907
Also T-80s are equipped with a gas turbine which is more suited to cold climate conditions. Suggesting they might be thinking about winter action. Also worrying.

https://twitter.com/Shiftey_/status/1458504285138849797

Väidetavalt 2019 aasta video ja artikkel
https://bloknot-voronezh.ru/news/ogromn ... li-1085005

Samas alles 2 päeva tagasi 08.11.2021 tehtud satelliidifoto kinnitab, et antud jaamas on jälle tehnika kogunemine. See muudab esimese video jälle kuupäevaliselt autentseks.
Sentinel-1 SAR-imagery of Maslovka - Voronezh on November 8th.

With some fine-tuning I'm able detect the 4th Tank Division armour and artillery parked near the train station.

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/statu ... 3088419843

Rongiga veetakse ka BAL rannikukaitsekomplekse-Primorski krais video selgituse järgi 07.11.2021
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 3839940609
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Voronežhi juures Maslovkas asuv raudteejaama tehnika kogunemine sai kinnitust. Tankid, liikursuurtükid ja muu tehnika.
Another video from Maslovka - Voronezh, showing a T-80 departing loaded on a tank transporter, and BMP-2s parked north of the T-80s and 2S19s.

https://twitter.com/4emberlen/status/14 ... 0737378307

Voroneži piirkonnas veel tanke ešelonis
https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 8221464580

BML-i võttis üle uus juht viitseadmiral Viktor Liina
Photos of Western Military District Commander Colonel-General Alexander Zhuravlyov presenting the Baltic Fleet's standard to its new commander Vice Admiral Victor Liina

Pilt
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1458819304292597773
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Venelane on Ukraina piiri ääres peatanud regulaarväed, kuid ka Rosgvardija on baasidesse ootama kogutud.
Sentinel-2 imagery from today of the garrison belonging to Rosgvardias 50th Separate Operational Brigade.

The vehicle parks are full. Review of earlier imagery shows a significant increase of equipment here since September.

An indicator that Rosgvardia also is on the move.

Pilt
https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/statu ... 0706799623
Ainus, mida me ajaloost õpime, on see, et keegi ei õpi ajaloost midagi.
Live for nothing or die for something.
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Pihkva dessantväelased poetati 2 km Leedu piirist Valgevenesse.
https://t.me/nexta_tv/19559
https://t.me/euroradio/24372
Inglise sõjaväelased lähevad poolakatele piiril appi.
https://t.me/nexta_tv/19567
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Re: Venemaa sõjaline võimekus ja armeereform(id)

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Video dessandist
https://twitter.com/theragex/status/1459140989394866182?s=20
Kui lisada siia VV kaiseministri statement, siis murelik olla on põhjust küllaga.
EDIT: Leedu piirini 10 km, Poola omani 20.
EDIT 2
Esimesed kaotused. Hukka sai kaks dessantväelast. Tehniliselt on selles muidugi süüdi Poola ja Leedu.
https://t.me/RealnaiaBelarus/26726
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