https://ecfr.eu/article/drones-in-ukrai ... -the-west/
Lesson one: It will not always be like Ukraine
Every armed force in the world today seeks to harness drone capabilities. Unlike only a few years ago, any state, as well as non-state actors, can readily acquire drones. Currently, the main exporters of military drones are China and Turkey. But drones can also be built domestically with comparatively little funding and expertise. Meanwhile, civilian drones are freely available to everybody in large quantities. These systems can, within limits, be adapted for military operations. Of course, a modified civilian quadcopter bears little resemblance to a multi-million uncrewed warplane. But both have military utility, and in some cases, mass production and low cost can compensate for lack of advanced capabilities. Western armed forces thus need to prepare for future conflicts in which drones will be omnipresent and used for various roles. They should be able to operate such systems, as well as be able to defend against them.
However, Ukraine could also just be a peak moment for drone warfare. The factors that made drones relevant in Ukraine might look different in future wars. The overall number of drones could be lower if civilian drones cannot be used—due to weather conditions or longer distances, such as in a maritime confrontation. Civilian drones might also not be as readily available in confrontations involving China, which produces virtually all civilian systems (see lesson three below). Other weapon systems might be available, thus decreasing the need for drones as substitutes.
Drone defences are another element of uncertainty: even in Ukraine, drones have become less useful in some areas due to counter-drone systems. Russia and Ukraine are playing a cat-and-mouse game, with fast innovation cycles for both drones and counter-drone technologies. Often, a new technological development only provides a temporary advantage before the other side adapts.
This means that one needs to be careful in extrapolating scenarios from Ukraine. Arguing that the war in Ukraine has shown the dominance of small and cheap drones over larger, more sophisticated and more expensive systems could be a dangerous miscalculation.
