Hiina jõudemonstratsioonid

[ruger]

Eesti keeles ka teema üleval.

Hiina relvajõud alustasid esmaspäeval Taiwani lähedal sõjaväeõppuste uut vooru, öeldes, et nendega soovitakse hoiatada saareriiki iseseisvusele suunatud sammude eest. Hiina õppused suurendasid piirkonnas pingeid ning pälvisid Taipei ja USA valitsuse hukkamõistu.

Demokraatlikult juhitud Taiwan, mida Hiina peab oma territooriumiks, oli tõstnud oma valmisolekut pärast president Lai Ching-te eelmisel nädalal riigipüha puhul peetud kõnet, mille Peking mõistis hukka, kuna Lai ütles, et Hiinal pole õigust Taiwani esindada.

Hiina sõjaväe idapoolse väegrupeeringu juhtkonna teatel toimuvad õppused "Joint Sword-2024B" Taiwani väinas ning Taiwanist põhja-, lõuna- ja idapoolsetes piirkondades.

"Õppus on karm hoiatus Taiwani iseseisvusjõudude separatistlike tegude eest. See on seaduslik ja vajalik operatsioon riigi suveräänsuse ja rahvusliku ühtsuse kaitsmiseks," seisis Hiina armee avalduses, mis tehti nii hiina kui inglise keeles. Teates ei öeldud, millal õppused lõppevad.

Hiina armee avaldas kaardi, millel on näidatud üheksa piirkonda Taiwani ümbruses, kus õppused toimuvad – kaks saare idarannikul, kolm läänerannikul, üks põhja pool ja kolm Taiwani kontrolli all olevate saarte ümbruses Hiina ranniku kõrval.

Hiina laevad ja lennukid lähenevad eri suundadest Taiwani vahetusse lähedusse, keskendudes mere- ja õhulahinguvalmidusele, peamiste sadamate ja alade blokeerimisele, mere- ja maapealsete sihtmärkide ründamisele ning üldise üleoleku haaramisele, teatas väejuhatus.

Hiina ei teatanud siiski lahinglaskmistest ega ka lennukite sisenemisest Taiwani kontrollitavasse õhuruumi. 2022. aastal, veidi pärast seda, kui toonane USA esindajatekoja spiiker Nancy Pelosi külastas Taiwanit, tulistas Hiina üle saare rakette.
Hiina alustas Taiwani ümbruses suurt sõjaväeõppust

Taiwani kaitseministeerium ja rannavalve teatasid, et on seadnud oma väed valmisolekusse, ametnike sõnul kogunes esmaspäeval president Lai juhtimisel riiklik julgeolekunõukogu, et olukorda arutada.

Taiwani julgeolekunõukogu peasekretär Joseph Wu ütles, et Hiina on president Lai hea tahte sõnumit ignoreerinud. "Sõjalise jõu kasutamine teiste riikide ähvardamiseks on vastuolus ÜRO põhikirja mõttega lahendada vaidlused rahumeelselt," ütles ta Taipeis ajakirjanikele.

Taiwani Hiina-poliitikat kujundav mandri-asjade nõukogu ütles, et Hiina viimased sõjaväeõppused ja keeldumine välistada jõu kasutamine on räiged provokatsioonid, mis kahjustavad tõsiselt piirkondlikku rahu ja stabiilsust.

Taiwani presidendi kantselei ütles oma avalduses, et Hiina peaks arvestama Hiina Vabariigi, mis on Taiwani ametlik nimi, olemasoluga ning austama Taiwani rahva valikut vaba ja demokraatliku eluviisi kasuks. Peking peaks hoiduma sõjalistest provokatsioonidest, mis häiriksid rahu ja stabiilsust regioonis ning ohustaksid Taiwani demokraatlikke vabadusi, seisis avalduses.

Washingtonis teatasid USA presidendi Joe Bideni administratsiooni ametnikud, et nad jälgivad Hiina korraldatud õppusi ja et õppustel pole pärast Lai kõnet mingit õigustust.

"Kutsume Hiina Rahvavabariiki üles tegutsema vaoshoitult ja vältima mis tahes edasisi tegevusi, mis võivad kahjustada rahu ja stabiilsust kogu Taiwani väinas ja kogu piirkonnas laiemalt, mis on piirkonna rahu ja õitsengu jaoks oluline ning rahvusvahelise mõjuga," märkis USA välisministeeriumi pressiesindaja Matthew Miller.

Reutersiga rääkinud anonüümsust palunud Taiwani kõrge julgeolekuametnik ütles, et Hiina blokeerib saare põhja- ja lõunaosas asuvaid sadamaid ja rahvusvahelisi laevateid ning tõrjub võõrvägede saabumist piirkonda.

Taiwan teatas pühapäeval Hiina lennukikandjarühmast, mis seilab saare lõunaossa läbi strateegilise Bashi kanali, mis eraldab Taiwani Filipiinidest ja ühendab Lõuna-Hiina merd Vaikse ookeaniga.

Hiina riigimeedia on alates neljapäevast avaldanud rida lugusid ja kommentaare, kus Lai kõnet taunitakse, ning pühapäeval avaldas Hiina idapiirkonna väekoondise juhatus video, milles öeldakse, et on valmistunud lahinguks.

Hiina armeeajaleht kirjutas esmaspäeval, et "need, kes mängivad tulega, saavad põletada!" "Seni, kuni "Taiwani iseseisvumise" provokatsioonid jätkuvad, ei lõpe Hiina armee tegevus riikliku suveräänsuse ja territoriaalse terviklikkuse kaitsmisel," rõhutas leht.

Hiina pidas maikuus vahetult pärast Lai ametisseastumist Taiwani ümbruses kaks päeva õppust "Joint Sword-2024A", öeldes, et see on karistuseks tema inauguratsioonikõnes esitatud separatistliku sisu eest.

Lai on korduvalt pakkunud Hiinale kõnelusi, kuid Peking on need tagasi lükatud. Lai ütles, et ainult Taiwani inimesed saavad oma tuleviku üle otsustada ja lükkas tagasi Pekingi taotlused saareriigi suveräänsusele.

https://www.err.ee/1609489990/hiina-opp ... as-pingeid

[ruger]

Tehnikat veidi välja aetud oli.

A total of 125 Chinese jets, 17 Chinese Navy ships and 17 Chinese Coast Guard vessels took part in Joint Sword 2024B, the Chinese military exercise that completely surrounded Taiwan this morning.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1845817125841035744

[ruger]

Täna oli veidi rohkem lennukeid

Taiwan announces it has spotted 153 Chinese aircraft, 14 vessels of the Chinese Navy & 12 other ships around the island today.

Taiwan deployed aircraft & naval vessels to monitor the situation.

This isn't part of yesterday's military drill

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1846127896558993436

[ruger]

Õppuse ülevaade

JOINT SWORD 2024B BRIEF + MAP

- China launched a simulated blockade around Taiwan
- Deployed a fleet of 34 PLAN + CCG ships
- Carrier group practiced securing a key choke point
- 153 PLA aircraft detected, with 111 entering Taiwan’s ADIZ—the most ever recorded in a single day

https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1846334931716214905

Video toimuvatest õppustest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hktpwLUZEaY

[ruger]

Hiina on ehitanud Bhutani(Hiina ja India vahel-Nepaalist idas) vaidlusalustel piirialadel juurde mitmeid külasid ning osa suurendab nüüd juba linnadeks.

There are now 22 villages and settlements constructed by China within #Bhutan's customary borders. The construction is continuing: seven were built within the last 18 months and three are going to be upgraded to towns.

China's primary goal seems to be acquiring the Doklam plateau at the Bhutan-India-China trijunction. But that doesn't explain its overall appropriation strategy, as discussed here in "The Politics of China’s Land Appropriation in #Bhutan"

https://x.com/RobbieBarnett/status/1846299252495888450

[ruger]

Hiina armee tulistas üle piiri Myanmari lennukeid, mis pommitasid mässuliste positsioone Hiina piiri lähedal.

The Chinese Army has opened fire on MiG-29 fighter jets from the Myanmar Air Force as they were bombing rebels near the Chinese border.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1847669947876446703

Footage reportedly showing Chinese (yes, Chinese PLA) AA guns firing at Myanmar Air Force MiG-29s that were bombing rebels near Chinese border.

https://x.com/clashreport/status/1847664053679690196


Xi käskis tugevdada ja parendada oma valmisolekut sõjaks.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called this week for troops to strengthen their preparedness for war, just days after Beijing staged large-scale military drills around Taiwan, - Inside Paper

Xi said the military should “comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, and ensure troops have solid combat capabilities”, CCTV reported.

Soldiers must “enhance their strategic deterrent and combat capability,” he said.

https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/18 ... 7360264378

Xi esinemine mundris

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on the military to “comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war” during a visit to the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force.

This follows large-scale military drills around Taiwan, highlighting Xi’s aggressive stance.

He emphasized the need to “enhance strategic deterrent and combat capability,” urging soldiers to focus their energy on fighting and improving their ability to win.

https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/1847861243778126340

[ruger]

Hiina on täisautomatiseerinud tiibrakettide tootmise-võimsus väidetavalt kuni 1000 tiibraketti päevas..... Tõlkes arvatavalt valesti(riiklik allikas) aga 200+ raketti võib Hiina võimekus olla küll.

China has an automated cruise missile factory that can produce over 1000 missiles a day working in 3 shifts according to CCTV Chinese media.

China's large military industrial capacity is likely to sustain a war effort for much longer than its adversaries.

https://x.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1848355598490083515

1000 missiles per day is a mistake in translation and the article source (CCTV7 documentary) can be questioned. The PRC just claimed to have broken military grade encryption which turned out to be 800 bit RSA - so small that no one - not even any of the Chinese commercial web stores - uses it.

Missiles rely on launchers, fuel, troops, storage etc... If you just drop them off wherever - they will become useless in a matter of days. If they were punting out 1000 missiles a day - we'd not only see it but Russia would be firing them. We see neither.

Rack this up as another propaganda joke next to ChinaDaily using Swiss alps photos to promote the PRC.

https://x.com/softwarnet/status/1848365513128513672

Hiinlased häirisid Indoneesia gaasi ja naftauuringuid(presidendi ametisse vannutamise ajal). Indoneesia saatis oma laevad Hiina laeva ära ajama.

The #China Coast Guard harassed #Indonesia's oil & gas exploration activities in the Arwana Block from 17-21 October (during President #Prabowo's inauguration). Indonesia responded by sending its own vessels to "expel" the Chinese ship.

https://x.com/GordianKnotRay/status/1848585098649612582
https://www.sealight.live/posts/indones ... rch-vessel

[ruger]

Kas Hiina võib sissetungi asemel Taiwanile, hakata seda hoopis blokeerima. Seda näitas just lõppenud õppus Joint Sword 2024B.

Why China will blockade, not invade, Taiwan

Blockade eschews win-loss invasion risk while keeping US in rules-of-engagement limbo for months or years while strangling island into submission.

China’s October 14 “Joint Sword 2024B” military exercise, the fourth large exercise near Taiwan in the last two years, reconfirmed Beijing’s vow to use force if necessary to compel Taiwan to join the People’s Republic of China (PRC) against the will of Taiwan’s people.

PRC officials and media said the exercise was a reaction to an allegedly provocative Republic of China National Day speech given by Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te. That claim was clearly bogus.

Lai’s speech was relatively mild toward China. He even said he is comfortable with the name “Republic of China,” which annoys some of his fellow Democratic Progressive Party members who would rather call their country the “Republic of Taiwan.”

Furthermore, Beijing called a previous large exercise in May, after Lai’s inauguration, “Joint Sword 2024A,” indicating there was already a plan for another one before the end of this year.

So it now appears that major PLA exercises are no longer reactions to new steps by Taiwan or the US toward de jure Taiwan independence. Rather, they follow a schedule set by Beijing.

If there is a positive glimmer from Joint Sword 2024B, it might be that the exercise seemed mostly a rehearsal for a blockade. The Chinese Coast Guard’s (CCG) participation was prominent and much hyped by PRC spokespeople and the media.

The CCG would be a major player, as important as the PLA Navy, in a blockade scenario.

During the exercise, CCG vessels took up positions on all sides of the main island of Taiwan and also sailed near two small Taiwan-held islands close to the coast of mainland China.

PRC government media organ Global Times said, “This indicates that the CCG, as a maritime law enforcement force, will intensify and increase the frequency of its activities around Taiwan,” foretelling a larger role for the CCG in future Chinese efforts to force Taiwan toward unification.

To hammer home the message, China dispatched CCG vessel 2901 to participate in the exercise. This ship, the largest coast guard vessel in the world, is heavier and longer than a US Arleigh Burke-class destroyer.

In a situation involving ships bumping and blocking each other, such as has become commonplace in the South China Sea, large Chinese vessels would have an advantage – as Beijing wants to remind Taiwan.

One Chinese military spokesperson said the purpose of the drill was to “form a situation where the island is pinned down from both sides.” Another said the exercise scenario included cutting off Taiwan’s imports and setting up a picket line to prevent “foreign”—spelled US—intervention from the east.

That the PLA was practicing a blockade scenario is significant because this is a different way to use the military to compel unification than trying to seize Taiwan by landing troops to physically conquer the island.

Analysts have long disagreed over the question of whether China would employ a blockade or attempt an invasion. Many have argued that invasion is Beijing’s preferred strategy.

Brandon Weichert wrote in The National Interest in June 2024 that “Most Western observers believe that China will seek a bolt-from-the-blue strike on Taiwan … because it would catch the world by surprise” and enable Beijing to directly achieve its goal of “decapitating Taiwan’s leadership.”

To be sure, plenty of others have contended that from China’s standpoint, a blockade is a better strategy than an invasion.

The fact that Joint Sword 2024B was the most recent exercise and highlighted operations relevant to a blockade possibly indicates that PRC military planners have concluded they prefer a blockade to an invasion if China decides to take military action against Taiwan.

It would not be surprising if Xi’s government came to the same conclusion as many other analysts: That an attempted invasion would be disastrous not only for Taiwan but also for China.

There are several reasons a blockade might look more appealing to the Chinese government than an invasion.

An invasion would be an all-or-nothing gamble that would either succeed or fail in its immediate objective of securing control of Taiwan’s government, infrastructure and key industries by PRC military commanders. (Longer-term objectives, such as effectively governing Taiwan’s people, are a different matter.)

A blockade, on the other hand, is a flexible strategy. It could range from firing on ships that tried to enter pre-declared restricted zones to demanding “inspections” of certain kinds of vessels to periodically lobbing missiles into the waters near Taiwan’s main ports.

China could enforce a blockade stringently or loosely, intensify it or discontinue it any time, depending on how Taipei and other governments were reacting to it.

A blockade would allow for the possibility that Taiwan would submit to Beijing’s will without the massive death and destruction that would inevitably result from an amphibious assault accompanied by massive bombardment.

An invasion would probably bring China immediately into combat with America’s formidable armed forces. A blockade, on the other hand, would pit a Chinese strength, gray zone tactics, against an American weakness, impatience.

If American ships arrived to help Taiwan deal with the blockade, Chinese ships could keep the US captains in a state of rules-of-engagement limbo for months or even years until the Americans decided to withdraw.

From Beijing’s standpoint, Taiwan looks vulnerable to a blockade. The island’s economy is highly dependent on international trade. It imports 98% of its energy. It is politically divided.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (or KMT), which holds the most seats of any party in Taiwan’s legislature, accepts the notion that Taiwan is part of China and favors seeking better relations with Beijing.

The PRC government could enhance the effects of a blockade by implementing other operations short of kinetic warfare, such as disinformation, cyberattacks against infrastructure and activating sleeper agents inside Taiwan.

A blockade is an awful prospect. It would bring misery to Taiwan and might result in a US-China war. The scale of the violence and mayhem unleashed by an attempted invasion, however, would be much worse.

If Beijing has quietly moved toward ruling out an invasion, this would be a significant and welcome step even if genuine relief for Taiwan still remains far away.

Denny Roy is a senior fellow at the East-West Center, Honolulu.

https://x.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1848720540225400978

[kalvis]

Kas Hiina võib sissetungi asemel Taiwanile, hakata seda hoopis blokeerima. Seda näitas just lõppenud õppus Joint Sword 2024B.

Väheeusutav. See kasvaks kohe täiemahuliseks sõjaks. Taiwaniga ei saa kasutada neid võtteid mis Filipiinidel kus hiinlased võtavad massiga üksiku laeva rõngasse ja kuna Filipiinide enda piirivalve ja muud on madalamad kui muru siis see õnnestubki. Hiina laevadele tehtakse kohe sama tagasi ja neid hakatakse arestima. Vajadusel tuleb appi USA.

[Chupacabra]

Trump ütles, et tema küll Taiwani pärast Hiinaga sõdima ei hakka.

[Kilo Tango]

Trump ütles, et tema küll Taiwani pärast Hiinaga sõdima ei hakka.

Kus, millal?

[Chupacabra]

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-n ... na-1926191

[nukkel]

Sealt võib välja lugeda et Trump tahab et Taiwan maksaks mingit raha nagu kindlustus. Aga ei ütle otseselt et ei kaitse.

[Chupacabra]

Kui Putin maksaks Trumpile, siis läheks USA näiteks UK vastu sõtta?

[olavsu1]

Kui Putin maksaks Trumpile, siis läheks USA näiteks UK vastu sõtta?

Trump on ärimees ja ärimehed on (ära)ostetavad. Kes maksab rohkem, saab teenuse.