Rootsi sõjaväeakadeemia analüüs-Venemaa valmistub lokaalseteks pikaajalisteks sõdadeks.
Back to the future - Russia's national security strategy 2021
It finally steams down, the new revised Russian national security strategy - announced in the Russian media throughout the spring. The new document is largely based on the 2015 version but contains some significant news.
Russia is preparing for a protracted conflict with the West. The importance of military force to achieve geopolitical goals in international relations is increasing (§34). There is a growing danger that armed conflicts will escalate from local to regional wars, in which, for example, nuclear-weapon states participate (§17).
It should first be said that the national security strategy is the most important strategy document - also according to Russian law on strategic planning - and this year's edition is the third in the series or possibly the fifth. In 1997 and 2000, the document was called a concept. As in previous years, this strategy document deals with nine different policy areas. Like previous documents, it is characterized by the spirit of the times - the experiences from the pandemic are reminiscent and also the protests in Belarus. However, this is not a strategy document with precise schedules and reconciliation points. Much of what is written in this document is not implemented, but its message shows a direction of travel and a pronounced political will on where Russia is headed.
Most of it is about domestic security and the need for the state to shape good and healthy Russian citizens. The message is even stronger in the 2021 edition of the national security strategy compared with 2015. The state's socio-economic policy must thus ensure that Russia's population has a dignified life, develops freely, has better health and lives longer. The purpose is to shape "a harmoniously developed and socially responsible citizen" (§32). And the section that deals with state and social security prescribes that the state's role as guarantor of the individual's security shall be strengthened (§41). As in 2015, the strategy points to “destructive forces abroad and within the country” that interfere in Russia's internal affairs and try to undermine the stability of the Russian interior (§44).
The document depicts a Russia that is admittedly more cohesive and that has managed to resist attempts to destabilize the country, but also a Russia where problems remain. The country's population must increase and the state of health must improve; the quality of life of the population needs to be improved, the proportion of the poor must be reduced and social inequality must be combated. It is also clear that Russia intends to be better prepared for a possible new pandemic - a system for monitoring "biological risks" will be developed and the population's "sanitary-epidemiological prosperity" will be guaranteed (§33: 8-9). Eliminating these problems is also important because forces inside and outside the country can use Russia's "objective socio-economic difficulties" to destabilize society and the country as a whole (§44).
Information security and scientific and technological development
Information security has its own section as in 2015, and here Russia continues on the already established line. The writings about the need to create a sovereign Russian sphere of information have been strengthened somewhat - "correct" information about Russia and Russia's official view of the country's actions internationally should benefit the population. As before, both technical information security (cyber security) and psychological information security are treated in parallel in the section, and not least young people are considered susceptible to “destructive influence” (§52). The actions of multinational companies are criticized and they are accused of censorship.
The strategy paper further states that Russia does not receive support for its view of international information security from certain other countries. This reflects the development that has taken place within the UN, where Russia has achieved some success through the adoption of Moscow's proposals for resolutions on international information security and cybercrime, respectively, in the UN General Assembly. Countries in the West, however, have a different view than Russia and the resolutions are not binding agreements either, which Russia and countries like China want to achieve.
For the first time, encryption and anonymity on the Internet are also specifically mentioned as a problem in the strategy. Artificial intelligence and quantum computers are also appearing for the first time in the strategy and are being touted as promising technologies to strengthen Russian information security.
Already the introduction states that Russia will reach a new level of economic development and that it will do so by developing the country's scientific potential, a commitment that is recognized from, for example, Putin's annual line figures 2018. The section dealing with scientific and technological development also repeats a a number of intentions that are also contained in the country's separate strategy for scientific and technological development and in related documents. Being one of the leading countries technologically in the world is, according to the strategy, also one of the key factors for the country's national security (§68).
Once again, the view is that state governance should be central to stimulating technological development and the innovation climate. Nor is this news but goals that have long existed and that seem difficult to achieve except in limited areas of technology and mainly in military research and development. The goal of increasing exchanges and cooperation between the civilian and military R&D sectors is far from new, but there are also no signs that this will happen. Russia has strong basic research and a well-educated population, but the climate of innovation will be difficult, if not impossible, to change without economic reforms. And economic reforms do not seem to be on the way. Even less political ones.
Uncertainty grows - the rhetoric hardens
All formulations about working with the United States and NATO to maintain strategic stability are gone, as are details of Russia's cooperation with the EU. The foreign policy part has been shortened from 20 paragraphs to seven. Anti-Western rhetoric, on the other hand, has been sharpened further, and now there is talk of "unfriendly states" and the West's attempt to "preserve its hegemony". At the same time, it is said that the Western, liberal model is in crisis and that the West is trying to undermine traditional values, distort history, revise the view of Russia's role and place in the world and rehabilitate fascism (§ 19). All references to Ukraine have been removed, except in the wording that Russia wants to strengthen relations with the Belarusian and Ukrainian peoples. "Some countries" are accused of trying to "initiate disintegration processes within the Commonwealth of Independent States" in order to destroy these countries' traditional relations with Russia (§17). For Russia, the protests in Belarus are organized by the West and not the result of internal dissatisfaction with Lukashenko or stolen elections. And it is doing so to the detriment of Russia and its relations with countries that have traditionally been allied with Moscow.
The country's defense, previously mentioned first in Russia's national strategic priorities, has now been given a foothold in favor of "the protection of Russia's people and the development of human potential." But that does not mean that the role of defense has been degraded. The document is permeated by the need for Russia to defend itself by all means, to strengthen its readiness for mobilization, including putting the economy at war. The piece about the traditional Russian spiritual and moral values has been expanded to a completely separate section. The purpose is to ensure "Russia's cultural sovereignty and to preserve a unified cultural sphere" (§93.7).
The US missile defense and NATO at Russia's borders are described as a threat. Furthermore, according to the document, the United States plans to place medium-range robots in Europe and the Pacific region, which is described as a threat to strategic stability (§36). To secure Russia's defense of the country, the Armed Forces and other armed forces have fourteen priority tasks (§40). Among the most important are: improving the system of military planning in order to develop interconnected means, ie political, military, military-technical, diplomatic, economic, information-related and other means. The wording on nuclear weapons that "nuclear deterrence should be maintained at a sufficient level" is the same as in 2015. The term "sufficient level" derives from Soviet military theory from the late Soviet era under Mikhail Gorbachev.
The "Westernization" (vesternizatsija) of culture is seen as a threat. The United States and its allies are said to be actively attacking traditional Russian spiritual, moral, and cultural-historical values. So do foreign NGOs, multinational corporations, and religious, terrorist, and extremist organizations. So what are these values that are being attacked? Several things are said to be characteristic, including patriotism, to serve the Fatherland and take responsibility for its fate, to prioritize the spiritual over the material, collectivism and historical memory and continuity between generations, and the unity among the people of Russia (§91). As far as generations are concerned, however, it is noted that the gap between them is growing (§86).
Finally: the word God is not mentioned at all despite the fact that both the constitution (after the amendments in 2020) and the national anthem do.
The image of a Russia that has - once again - turned away from the West and that at the same time defends the whole of European civilization is fading. It echoes the myth of Moscow as the third Rome. This is certainly nothing new or particularly original. President Vladimir Putin was very clear, not least in 2012:
"Russia can and must play a worthy role, dictated by its model of civilization, great history, geography and its cultural set-up, which organically unites the foundations of European civilization and the experience of cooperation with the East."
The document also reflects an internal contradiction. Russia must strive for a leading position in a dangerous world, a world in change and which thus also offers opportunities for the strong to be a driving force in a high-tech race. At the same time, the greatness of the nation-state and the empire is evoked from the past. State governance and control are key words and repression against independent political forces is a necessity. The freedom, loyalty and creativity of the population must be promoted in a straightforward, controlled manner while at the same time fighting enemies within and outside the country. The idea of a dynamic future nation is reflected in the past - a paradox that challenges not only Russia.
Gudrun Persson is an associate professor, research leader and member of KKrVA. Carolona Vendil Pallin is a PhD, research leader and member of KKrVA.
