Venemaa majandus ja sanktsioonid I

[pagan]

Tundub, et vene keskpank on otsustanud nui-neljaks Euro hinna 75 rubla peal hoida. Hea sõda käib börsil.
Ja rahavahetuse mahud on meeletud. Viimati oli selline möll 2008 detsembris.
Päevane maht ületab tavapärast argipäevast üle kümne kordselt.

[Rügaja]

Kui ikka paksu udu pajatada...
http://arileht.delfi.ee/news/uudised/pu ... d=70395363

Aga Luka maksab ilmselt kätte Venemaa-poolsete alanduste eest. Vahepääl kujutati teda Vene meedias suisa naerualusena ja kogu Valgevenet mingi mõttetu kolhoosina.
Luka on pidanud suht kaua suu Vene suunas väga koomal hoidma, seda enam nüüd keerab nuga haavas mõnuga.
Luka on kaval vana, on osanud riigis säilitada nii masinatööstuse kui põllumajanduse. Ja kui nüüd kollektiivseks Putini kottimiseks läheb, siis pole välistet, et tasuks õige poole valimise eest pannakse Luka piltlikult öeldes istuma Merkeli paremale käele. Igatahes on Valgevene positsioon riigi ja majandusena tugevam kui iial enne

[tympsa]

Keskpanga tugiostudel on mõtet vaid siis kui rubla kursilangus on põhiliselt tingitud spekulatsioonidest + rahva hulgas levivast paanikast. Sel juhul on seda võimalik tagasi pöörata ja pidur peale tõmmata. Kuid kui kursilangus on tingitud majanduse fundamentaalsest nõrkusest, pole tugiostudel mingit mõtet, sest kogu värk lendab niikuinii kuradile.

seda kumb variant Venes praegu on , näeb peagi sellest, kas riik hakkab lähiajal sisse viima veel rohkem administratiivseid käsumajanduse elemente ( kapitali väljaveokeeld,50%valuutatulude kohustuslik vahetamine rubladeks,) või püütakse säilitada praegust suht liberaalset süsteemi.

[Kylaline]

Ma siin mitmeid päevi jälginud kursse, täna muidugi ka nö. erilise hoolega. Lahe vaadata kus kurss taala või euri kasuks paneb ülesmäge 3 rublikut jne. , ja siis kohe tekib lambi kukkumine 3+1 rüblikut sibulate kasuks. Eriti oli see märgata täna hommikul.

[kaugeltuuriv]

Härrased,kas teile ei tundu,et see Putja võitlemine ruubliku eest on nagu tuuleveskitega.
Kusjuures oletatav oponent Putja jaoks-Lääs-ei pea selle jaoks mitte essugi tegema.
Saudid tahavad suuremat tururosa,seega on nafta hinnad all,mingeid spekulatsioone ei pea Lääne pangad tegema-ruubel langeb eelkõige naftaraha puududlikuse tõttu ning selle tõttu,et pikemaajaline finantseerimine on suletud.Lääne pangandussüsteem on selline,et ju nad leiavad endale teised riigid,kus äri teha ega sellepärast pangad laenutegevust koomale tõmba.Seega tulevikukaotusi näiteks sellest,et ei saa enam laenata ja % Venemaalt enda kasumisse ei jõua,minuarvates ei ole eriline case.Ja kuna riik on ikkagi suur toorainemüüja ja siis ka seda saab lõppude lõpuks asendada,kujutan ette,et teised tooraineriigid hõõruvad hetkel käsi.

[soul]

Krimmile ja Sevastoopolile kehtestatud uued sanktsioonid kinnitatud.
http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/c ... 146392.pdf

[Rügaja]

Nagu kevadel eeldada oligi, et Krimmi päris niisama Moskvale tallata ei anta:
http://majandus24.postimees.ee/3030367/ ... d#comments
Kui see poleks nüüd ainult Euroopas sageli viljeldav asendustegevus, ehk siis, et nende Krimmi sanktsioonide varjus võetakse märtsis Venele pangandussanktsioonid lõdvemale... Loodaks siiski, et nii ei lähe.

Ega Puutinil eriti muud võimalust polegi, kui üritada oma korraldatud majanduskatastroof lääne kaela ajada. Paha Ameerika kiusab ja paha Jewroliit kimbutab - no mis meie, heasüdamlikud venelased, teha saame
Võib-olla peabki mõni rahvas olema vaene? Rikas venelane kipub olema ülbe ja ebameeldiv... Ega nad küll vaesest peastki teab-mis inglid ole, aga vaeste hulgas ehk kaastundlikkust, siirust ja empaatiavõimet pisut rohkem

[MMX]

BloombergViews artikkel.

Putin elab oma 19. sajandi fantastilises maailmas ja ei võta kedagi ega midagi kuulda.
Muidugi on kõik teised, mitte tema ja Venemaa süüdi selles, mis toimub.
Ülbe ka.

Putin Isn't Worried. You Should Be.
19 Dec 18, 2014 9:30 AM EST
By Leonid Bershidsky

A mere two weeks after delivering a weak, stumbling state-of-the-nation address, Russian President Vladimir Putin is back on form as a consummate populist demagogue. His confident performance, and his combative answers to questions that obviously were not pre-approved, seemed designed to demonstrate that he was in control of Russia's economic situation and not about to back down from his aggressive stance on foreign policy. Putin projected confidence that Russians will stick with him even if they grow poorer.

Yesterday, Alexander Tkachev, governor of Russia's southern Krasnodar region, told Russians they'd better tighten their belts to pay for the annexation of Crimea in March: "Didn't we all applaud, didn't we all say it was great, we'd done great, Crimea was ours? That means we must share not just the responsibility, but also this burden, these losses." It sounded like a reasonable, pragmatic line to take, but Putin knew it was untenable: According to a recent Levada Center poll, only 6 percent of Russians are willing to put up with falling incomes in exchange for territorial gain.

Putin's spin today on why Russians should stick with him through the hardship was different:

No, this is not payback for Crimea. This is payback, or, rather, payment for our natural desire for self-preservation as a nation, as a civilization, as a state... Sometimes it occurs to me: perhaps our bear should sit back peacefully, stop chasing piglets around the taiga woods and just feed on berries and honey? Perhaps then they'll leave him alone? No they won't, because they will always want to put him on a chain. And as soon as they succeed in putting him on a chain, they will rip out his teeth and his claws. Today, that means the nuclear deterrent. As soon as this happens, God preserve us, the bear won't be needed and the taiga will immediately be grabbed. We have heard many times almost from officials that it's unfair that Siberia with its immeasurable wealth belongs entirely to Russia. Unfair, how do you like that? And grabbing Texas from Mexico was fair.

This tirade shows why Western leaders have found it impossible to talk reasonably with Putin. He appears so out of touch he could have been from another planet. The U.S. grabbing Texas from Mexico? An invasion of Siberia by covetous Westerners? Seriously? It's useless to point out to him that Texas' secession from Mexico in 1836 resulted from a revolution, not a land grab, and ended in Texas setting itself up as an independent state for the next ten years; it makes no sense to tell him the story of former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright complaining about the unfairness of resource distribution is apocryphal, a Russian invention.

In a certain sense, Putin is still living in a 19th century of his own making: his comments on Ukraine, Russian history, geopolitics or the economy range from mildly untrue to fantastical. So how can foreign interlocutors expect to hold a reasonable conversation with the man?

In truth, there's very little evidence that Putin is interested in a reasonable conversation with his Western counterparts. He has become entirely consistent in offering the same emotional narrative to all audiences; his rhetoric is a bizarre kind of political shiatsu that only hits the right spots when the listener is sympathetic from the start. If it doesn't work with someone, Putin doesn't care. Answering a question on whether he feared a palace coup, he said:

We have our official residence, the Kremlin, which is well-protected. And that is also a factor of our state's stability. But stability is not based on that. It is based -- there can be no more solid base than the support of the Russian people. I think you won't argue with me if I say the main points of our foreign and domestic policy enjoy such support.

Putin wears that support -- which still stands above 80 percent, according to polls -- like armor. At the press conference, he was happy to take a question from a Ukrainian journalist in a sweatshirt bearing the logo "Ukrop," pro-Russian separatists' derogatory name for Ukrainian troops, and didn't bat an eye when the question turned out to be about Russian soldiers dying in eastern Ukraine. (They were there because their heart called them, Putin said.) The anti-Kremlin TV channel Dozhd asked him about how he could tell the Russian opposition apart from a fifth column doing the West's bidding, and a provincial reporter queried him about his friends getting rich during his rule. His answers were glib and sarcastic, and contained no revelations except for his belief that Russians will back him regardless of the economic circumstances.

As I have said before, it's a gamble. As in the state-of-the nation address, Putin did not spell out a coherent policy for dealing with low energy prices and Russia's subsequent currency crisis. He did let on that he was holding "friendly" conversations with the owners and managers of big companies, leaning on them to sell more hard currency, and that the conversations were having an effect. Today, the daily newspaper Kommersant reported that state companies would be hit with a mild form of capital controls, forcing them to convert dollar and euro revenues into rubles, and that large private companies would be "monitored" for compliance with this policy.

That may help slow the ruble's decline. These days, it makes sense to watch Putin's speeches on a split screen, one half showing his tense posture and the other displaying the ruble's exchange rate against the dollar. Throughout the speech, rate volatility remained low, the ruble sinking momentarily when Putin deployed his bear analogy, only to later make up the loss. At about 61 to the dollar, the ruble is now way above its historic minimum of 77 to the dollar, reached on Tuesday.

Putin today repeated like a mantra that the currency crisis had "external reasons" and that it would blow over within two years as Russia adjusts to low oil prices. The aggressive rhetoric from the Russian leader is meant to tide his supporters over during that magical "adjustment." It's a depressing response for those who thought economic strain would make him more malleable. Putin is thinking more, not less, about why a bear needs his teeth and claws.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2 ... -should-be

[Rändur]

Putinile mitte eriti head uudised...

[mumuu]

Jõhker maailmavõim ikka. SKP umbes Itaaliaga samas suurusjärgus, pool aastat langevaid naftahindu ja riigi majandus on sisuliselt käpuli. Eriline suurusehullustus ausaltöeldes. Selline ülbe aguli nolk, kasimata ja endal püksiperse lõhki. Aga vähe suuremat kasvu, teistele põngerjatele hakkab hammas peale. Tema tahab maailmaasjades kaasa rääkida ...... Maailma suurim riik pindalat ja ei suuda ennast äragi toita. Ainult varastada ja nõrgematega tüli norida oskab ....

[Westland]

Nii on.Valid endast väiksema ning nõrgema,tümitad teda,et suured ja tugevad austaksid.Hale!

[laikar]

Ega siis pole muud, kui tuleb seda kaabakat veel natu raputada. brent 59,37

[MMX]

Bloomberg kirjutab:

Veebruaris Sotšis küsis Putin, et kas Venemaal on küllalt raha, et tulla toime Ukraina jamadega kaasnevatele tagasilöökidele. Kremli nõunikud vastasid - jah.

Nojah, eks see on tavaline - kui raha pole, on mees vagusi, on raha palju, kukub laiama. Järelikult tuleb Venemaa majanduslikult põhja lasta ja siis saame endale viisaka(ma) naabri.

Putin’s Secret Gamble on Reserves Backfires Into Currency Crisis
By Evgenia Pismennaya, Ilya Arkhipov and Brad Cook Dec 18, 2014 6:57 PM GMT+0200

Kremlin insiders gathered in secret last February to answer a crucial question for Vladimir Putin: Could Russia afford the economic blowback from taking over Crimea?

Moscow said yes.

Markets aren’t so sure.

As President Putin exulted at the Winter Olympics in Sochi 10 months ago, aides assured him Russia was rich enough to withstand the financial repercussions from a possible incursion into Ukraine, according to two officials involved in the talks.

That conclusion now looks like a grave miscalculation. Russia has driven interest rates to punishing levels and spent at least $87 billion, or 17 percent, of its foreign-exchange reserves trying to prevent a collapse in the ruble from spiraling into a panic. So far, nothing has worked.

Despite the assurances in Sochi, Putin now faces what could be the nation’s most serious economic crisis since 1998, when Russia’s devaluation and default reverberated around the world. U.S. and European sanctions and, more significantly, plummeting oil prices are eroding the reserves that emboldened Putin to annex Crimea despite an international outcry.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-1 ... qus_thread

[Otto K]

Tänane pressikonverents väljaspool saali....
Kõik kes julgesid tulla.... "juhatati" vene politsei (või peaks jätkuvalt ütlema - mentide) poolt bussi ja peeti kinni.
Vot kuidas Vova armastab oma rahvast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxgoER1vnpI#t=237

EDIT

Stepan Demura avaldab arvamust, et vene keskpangal on rubla kaitsmiseks reserve ca 30-60 miljardit (mingitel teistel andmetel 40-100 miljardit).
Ja veel arvab ta, et suured nn. spekulandid pole oma rublasid veel vahetama hakanud.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_wStZR0FFM
Videos alates 10.00

[PaganHorde]

http://sport.delfi.ee/news/hoki/maailm/ ... d=70298171

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