https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/do ... 023-part-2
Lühidalt siis:Russia started with an estimated 15 million artillery shells, produced one million shells last year and will produce 1.5 million this year. On the other side of the ledger, they started the war firing 63k shells a day. As stockpiles dwindled (and Russia lost over 5,000 guns) Russia is now firing 12k shells a day and is projected to fire only 7k a day by the end of the year. The end result is they may only have 700k rounds left in their stockpiles at the end of the year. This is why they are looking for ammo from North Korea or wherever they can find some. At North Korea’s border Tumangang rail facility with Russia there were 70 rail cars, considered unprecedented as there had only been at most 20 cars previously.
On the other hand, Russian drone production is increasing. Drones are Russia’s most effective means of counter-battery fire, and while they do not replace Russia’s diminishing firepower from artillery they are having a significant impact on the battlefield. ...
Over the course of the war, Ukraine has doubled its rate of fire from 4k rounds a day to 8k rounds a day. Before the year is out, Ukraine may actually end up firing more rounds than Russia on a daily basis. Currently, Russia is outshooting Ukraine 3:2 in terms of shells, but western artillery and Ukrainian fire direction control is generally more accurate than their Russian counterparts, and the DPICM round is very effective when compared to the standard HE round. Because of that, Ukrainian artillery is already having a bigger impact than Russian artillery.
But Ukraine would like to fire at an even higher rate but it’s already using more than than the allies are producing. Thanks to the release of the DPICM rounds, they can fire at this level of intensity for some months to come, but a higher tonnage of explosives on Russian positions would cause even more casualties, maybe to the point where they could not replace them fast enough.
2022 alguses oli Venemaal hinnanguliselt 15m mürsku.
2022 toodeti 1m
2023 siiani toodetud 1,5m
2022 alguses lasti 63k päevas (teeks ~23m aastas)
Praegu 12k päevas (~4,4m aastas)
2023 lõpuks eeldatakse 7k päevas (~2,6m aastas)
Ukraina lasi 2022 alguse poole 4k päevas (~1,5m aastas)
Praegu 8k päevas (~2,9m aastas) mida on rohkem kui läänes toota suudetakse.
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Ukraina poolt hävitatud vene suurtükkide hulk on paari päevaga kukkunud tipptasemelt miinimumi. Eks näis ka see on ajutine anomaalia või midagi on rindel muutunud.
https://index.minfin.com.ua/en/russian- ... asualties/
Ukrainian 110th Mechanised Brigade released footage of unsuccessful Russian attempt of assault